Duration
2 days · 14 hours
“A manager’s legacy is the sum of the decisions made under uncertainty.”
Builds a decision-making capability for high-uncertainty situations, pairing evidence-based methods with creative judgment.
Managers make their most critical decisions with incomplete information and under time pressure. This program turns uncertainty from an obstacle into a variable you can manage deliberately.
Through tools such as probabilistic thinking, scenario planning and pre-mortem analysis, participants learn to make decisions that stay defensible and flexible under uncertainty.
Leaving the illusion of certainty behind and reasoning in probabilities.
Building flexible plans that hold up across multiple possible futures.
Reducing the overconfidence and anchoring effects that uncertainty triggers.
Distinguishing risk from genuine uncertainty.
Base rates and an intuition for Bayesian updating.
Mapping out failure scenarios before the decision is made.
Managing risk through reversible, staged decisions.
PhD in decision science and managerial behavior; a practitioner who teaches at leading universities and has designed executive development programs across many organizations. He brings academic rigor to real-world practice.
Placeholder — to be replaced with the actual instructor details.
We adapt the content to your team’s agenda and sector to make it fully bespoke.